نشریه آینده پژوهی دفاعی
پیاپی 20 (بهار 1400)

Elections are considered as the main symbol of democracy in the countries with democratic systems and It forms the foundation of national security and political stability in such a democratic society. in addition, since how the process of holding elections and participation in it is an indicator of social capital for sovereign systems, one of the most important factors in the national security discourse is considered national security. The present study outlines the 1400 presidential election scenarios from a national security look. the aim of this study is to delineate the probable states facing the presidential election , and the avoidance of exposure in passive conditions . In this study, the literature review, observation and interviews. Likewise, the scenarios have been explained by utilizing the experts’ expertise through a host of factors and agents influencing the elections as well as influential fifteen actors and their ideals, and identifying Eightee driving forces and Three key uncertainties and the frameworks for scenarios. The Experts panel in this research were experts in futures studies, political sciences and international relations. Based on their views, four scenarios of “dull sunset”, “on the verge sunrise”, "slow slip" and "horrific slide" were identifies

One of the requirements for development and progress in any field is to have insight into the environment, making decisions in a timely manner and having a purposeful and comprehensive plan is not possible unless future research is done correctly and successfully. A study of the vision document of the A.I. Iran in the 20-year horizon shows that the army with its mission-oriented identity needs development in the future. Meanwhile, the Army Command Headquarters, as the mastermind of the A.I. Iran, has an important role to play in directing the future movements of the A.I. Iran. This research, which is extracted from a level one research project, has been compiled with the aim of presenting an Indigenous model of futurism research at the headquarters of the A.I. Iran. However, in terms of the purpose of the application and the method of implementation, it is descriptive and exploratory. The researcher first reviews the literature and documents and comparative study of different models of futurism studies in military and civilian organizations and from the results, the dimensions and components of Futuristic models were counted. In the next step, different indicators were used for the good fit of the model. The statistical population of the study includes all commanders and senior managers of Army headquarters who are working in jobs related to the subject of foresight. The results showed that the indigenous model of foresight in the army headquarters is in four layers (results, processes, networking and policy-making) and has four dimensions (goals, participation, methods and results) and not the main component.

proper recognition and timely entry in new defence areas is always one of the concerns of designers and players in the field of cyber warfare. Evaluating of cyber power and identifying weaknesses and vulnerabilities in order to prevent surprises in future wars has a high degree of importance. In the present study, with a comprehensive and futuristic vision, the dimensions and components of cyber power in the field of cyber - defence of the Armed Forces were studied and scenarios were presented to evaluate the Cyber strength. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the cyber power of the Armed Forces (The cyber defence dimension). The statistical population and sample size were matched, including 20 experts in the field of cyber forces of the Armed Forces. The type of research is applied research and the method is exploratory in the first stage due to the recognition of the dimensions and components of the subject, and in the second stage, they are conducted using the futures studies and the emphasis on the scenario method. The result is that the cyber defence approach has four components, including: defence platform, cyber diplomacy, human factor and soft/hard ware. Also, the human factor component has a higher priority. It is recommended that the ICT Deputy of the Armed Forces the cyber power evaluation of the Armed Forces with emphasis on the cyber offensive dimension and in the form of a separate study is recommended.

Rapid development of information technology and the continuous process of digitalization, the current era is facing a continuous and comprehensive change in life, industry and the way it works. Different industries need technology foresight and digital transformation roadmaps to adapt effectively to the leading digital transformation of the next two decades. This is especially significant in the defense industry, which has had the opportunity to enter the global market after the arms embargo. this study aims to identify and prioritize the critical factors for the success of digital transformation maturity in a defense industry in three stages. In the first step, by systematic literature review, 41 completely related articles from scientific databases have been obtained. Using content analysis method, it has identified the critical success factors that affecting the maturity of digital transformation. In the second stage, using the opinions of experts in a fuzzy Delphi study, the explored factors are refined with a future-research perspective. In final step, it has prioritized the approved components from the experts' point of view with the help of the fuzzy best worst method. The results show that managerial infrastructure with 30.8% and cultural infrastructure with 27.3% play the most important role in the maturity of digital transformation of the studied industry. Also, components of processes and digital strategy in the management infrastructure, digital culture and cooperation in the cultural infrastructure, technology and digital ecosystem in the technology infrastructure, and digital skills and customer insight in the human infrastructure are the most important

The purpose of this study is to provide a Foresighting framework for analyzing defense geopolitical issues. Geopolitics due to the environment and environmental forms or phenomena such as geographical location, land shape, scarce resources, communication and critical facilities (land, sea and air), the relationship between tools in political decision-making, especially at a continuous and global level there is. In the present study, after reviewing the theoretical literature of geopolitics and strategic Foresighting and comparative study of geopolitical factors, a framework for analyzing defense geopolitical issues based on strategic Foresighting is presented. In terms of purpose, the present study is an applied research and descriptive-survey type in which the combined method has been used. The method of data collection is reviewing and analyzing documents and related articles and using a questionnaire. Also, the final framework and sequence of process steps have been extracted using interpretive structural modeling(ISM) technique. The results show that the framework consists of five levels and has steps such as; Analysis of current and future regional and trans-regional actors affecting defense geopolitics, economic, political, military, social and cultural situations, discovering and recognizing the desired state of defense geopolitics, recognizing and planning geostrategies and strategic situations, continuous evaluation of geopolitical issues and strategies Geopolitical goals and interests.

This research has been aimed to identify the key drivers of performance management based on the staff productivity approach with a mix research and descriptive-exploratory method. In this way, the key drivers of performance management were identified by Thematic Analysis and were prioritized by Interpretive Structural Modeling. The statistical population included university professors as well as senior human resource managers in the aviation industry. Sampling was done by judgmental method and 14 experts were selected up to the data saturation step. Data were collected through a semi-structured interview to identify key drivers and an expert-based questionnaire to prioritize them. The results led to the identification of performance management drivers, which include; contextual, organizational, managerial and motivational drivers. In addition, the identified drivers based on the experts' opinions were ranked in three levels.